Here it comes

The red guys debate tonight in Montreal. En français. Then once more in English. Then they vote. Then Carney wins.

He has the CV from God. She (Chrystia Freeland) cannot in any universe separate herself from the Trudeau years and agenda. In fact, her attempts to pivot are damaging the woman. She’s turned her back on the carbon pricing she vigorously supported, for example. So was she lying then, or lying now?

And how about capital gains tax? As finance minister, hiking the inclusion rate by a gross amount above a quarter-mil was her idea. Now she opposes it. So, what changed? And what assurance do we have that future decisions affecting millions of people will not be based on personal ambition? Yeah, none.

The Trudeau minister was also a supporter of her leader’s immigration policy. Now she isn’t. She would tie the flow of newcomers to the construction of houses (even though we have a huge surplus of new, unpurchased homes). So, pivot. Unpredictable. Gone with the wind.

Clearly. Mark’s da guy.

By the way, here is a handy reference chart from Scotiabank Economics on where the two leading candidates to be Lib leader and the next PM stand on issues.

Click to enlarge. Source: Scotiabank.

Now the big questions are (a) the legitimacy of a prime minister on March 9th who is unelected and (b) who gets to spit in Trump’s eye and stand up best for Canada?

Of course, if the White House sticks to its current agenda, Canada and Mexico will be hit with a crippling 25% tariff on all exports to the States on the 4th. Yes, a week from tomorrow. Just a few days after the Liberal leadership is decided, another 25% tax goes on all our steel and aluminum flowing south. So, the odds are mounting Canada will be in recession by summer – one way or another – with layoffs prevalent and people screaming for more income support from the feds.

In other words, electing a PM and party committed to slashing the size, scope, spending and reach of government just when Keynesian economics demands more of it might, be a challenge. Especially if we have retaliated against the Yanks with dollar-for-dollar duties (Carney and Poilievre support this) which will rekindle inflation, drive up consumer prices, halt rate cuts and perhaps bring higher mortgages.

Not simple. Without a doubt, the Canadian election will be heavily influenced by the American policy actions. That, in turn, will deeply affect our economy. So much is now unknown.

So what will Carney do?

He will probably resist being sworn in as prime minister on the 10th after being coronated, and instead trigger a federal election with a short writ period. The minimum in Canada is 37 days. So, kids, circle Tuesday, April 15th. Yup, two weeks before your income tax return is due.

By the way, here is how Carney might do in an election contest held today, according to the pollster Leger. The Cons still on top, but in a tighter race that would mark an historic comeback for a federal party facing extinction three months ago. And the NDP gets squished.

Of course, a week is a long time in politics. Things may change rapidly. But it’s a fair bet the next federal election will be called exactly two weeks from today. If Trump wants Carney to win, he will go ahead with his absurd, destructive, punitive, nutter tariffs. If he favours PP, he won’t.

The more Trump crawls into our head, our plans, our economy and our lives, the tougher it is for Poilievre. They’ve both been singing from the same songsheet, saying their countries are ‘broken’, their economies ‘ruined’, that government is bad and bloated, media is fake and public broadcasters should be defunded, that woke is the enemy of right and opponents should be scorned, demeaned and mocked with nicknames (like ‘Krazy Kamala’, ‘Sleepy Joe’, ‘Carbon Tax Carney’ and ‘Sellout Singh’).

Whatever the outcome, the political polarization is unhelpful. Whomever wins in April needs the unfettered support of all sides of the House of Commons in a struggle for our sovereignty, dignity and prosperity.

Canada, like America, is not broken. Those telling us country is above all better mean it.

About the picture: “Here is a picture of our three beasts: Echo, Shroeder (terrier mutts), and Pippin (shih tzu),” writes Katie (AKA “Cathy the Moister”). “We are a “blended family”, so to speak, and probably one of your few “rainbow” readers. Diversity in dogs, diversity in readers…it’s a winning formula. Thanks again for your daily advice.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast email to ‘[email protected]’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/02/24/here-it-comes/