What Happens To The Middle East If Russia & The US Stop Being Enemies?

Via Middle East Eye

Some call it the end of the post-war order. Others, a grand realignment. Regardless of how it’s defined, the Middle East faces a new paradigm: what happens when the US stops viewing Russia as a foe and instead as a potential partner, or at the very least, a neutral actor? American diplomats and analysts are still struggling to come to grips with this potentially historic shift.

When asked about a report that Israel was lobbying the Trump administration to let Russia keep its military bases in Syria, one career US diplomat in the region replied, “Well, that would be against our national interests?” They responded with silence when asked what would happen if the US president didn’t see it that way. Trump has said he wants to partner with Russia for “incredible opportunities”.

On Friday, Trump doubled down, saying he found it easier to deal with Russia than Ukraine, a country the US had been supplying arms and intelligence to until recently. Asked about Russia’s widespread attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, Trump said Putin was “doing what anybody else would do”.

Trump, Nixon and the China analogy 

The US view of Russia as a foe working against its interests has defined the Middle East since the end of WWII, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt courted Saudi Arabia for Gulf oil. In the following decades, the US worked to counter the Soviet Union across the region.

The US’s support for Israel in the 1973 War led to an eventual peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. In the process, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat evicted Soviet military advisors who had been welcomed by Gamal Abdel Nasser. Until December 2024, the United States viewed the toppled Syrian Assad dynasty as a vehicle for nefarious Russian power projection.

Trump’s allies looking to explain his outreach to Putin have said he is trying to break up a bloc of states, mainly Russia, Iran and China, from coordinating against the US. They add that Trump’s overtures echo the strategic diplomacy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger opening up to China in the 1970s.

Chas Freeman, a former US diplomat, whose career spanned almost three decades, told Middle East Eye it was a “false comparison”.

“A better analogy to Trump’s opening to Putin is Sadat going to Jerusalem.” Freeman is reliable on the subject considering he was the interpreter for Nixon’s trip.

In the Middle East, Trump’s bid to work with Putin may reflect his priorities and a geopolitical world view. Some of Trump’s confidants have raised the alarm about Turkey’s expanding influence.

Steve Bannon & Mike Flynn’s worldview

Steve Bannon, a former Trump advisor whose podcast War Room has become required listening to those seeking to discern Trump’s world view, said recently that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was “one of the most dangerous leaders” in the world and wants to “re-establish the Ottoman Empire”.

Trump himself said that the collapse of the Assad government in Syria was merely an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkey. Trump wants to withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria. According to Reuters, Israel has told the Trump administration one way to reduce Turkey’s influence in the country would be via Russia.

“Donald Trump wants to be out of Syria. I can imagine that Russia and Israel cooperate to limit Turkish influence there and Trump just says, ‘I don’t care. You guys deal with Turkey’,” Robert Ford, the US’s former ambassador to Syria, told MEE.

Trump has selected traditional Republicans who have been hostile to Russia, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz. But career US diplomats and defence officials say their influence is limited. For example, Rubio sat silent as Vice President JD Vance challenged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last month. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s unconfirmed Middle East envoy, was the one tapped to meet Putin – speaking for roughly three hours -in Russia.

The gatekeepers to Trump’s selection of appointees are not diehard Russia hawks but those who believe the US should engage Moscow.

Officials looking to get into the White House have courted Mike Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor who was ousted from his first administration over his discussions with the Russians. Trump said he offered Flynn “about ten jobs” in his new administration.

Can Russia broker a US-Iran deal?

Trump hasn’t revived ties with Russia for the Middle East – he wants a ceasefire in Ukraine – but there are areas in the region where Russia is trying to entice the White House.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin said that future talks between Russia and the US would include discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme. Spokesman Dmitry Peskoa appeared to acknowledge a report that Russia offered to mediate between the Islamic Republic and the Trump administration.

Trump says he wants a diplomatic deal with Iran over its nuclear programme. On Friday, he said he sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asking for talks. The Obama administration, which tried its own so-called reset with Russia, leaned on the Kremlin during the 2015 nuclear talks.

“Obama gave Russia a lot of concessions for its mediation in the 2015 nuclear deal,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute For Near East Policy, told MEE. “In practice, Russia acted as Iran’s lawyer, watering down US concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation.”

In fact, Russia played a key role for the US after the deal was signed, with Iran shipping excess uranium to Russia to ensure it couldn’t be used as a bomb. In return, Russia, which shares the Caspian Sea with Iran, reaped economic benefits, sealing a deal to construct a nuclear power plant.

Ford, however, cautioned that Russia’s utility to the US on nuclear talks might be limited. The Obama administration itself bypassed Russia and its European powers to negotiate directly with Iran during the talks.

“Kerry was meeting Zarif directly and then back-briefing the Europeans. I can’t imagine the US or Iranians would rely on the Russians. This is such a life and death matter for Tehran,” Ford said, referring to former Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, who negotiated the 2015 deal.

Freeman said he is skeptical a grand Russian-US rapprochement will materialize. “Things are rearranging themselves in very unpredictable ways. It’s like a kaleidoscope. You bang two sides together, and no one knows what new pattern will be formed,” but he said that in the Middle East, what’s likely is not “active cooperation, but American silence”.

Chasing Gulf money

If the war in Ukraine ends and Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, he could dent some of the Gulf states’ economic activity.

The United Arab Emirates and Russia were deepening ties before the Biden administration slapped sanctions on Russia. But after that, the UAE became a hub for re-exporting sanctioned goods. Russia could stop paying Emirati middlemen and buy directly from the United States if Trump ends the sanctions.

Borshchevskaya said that Russia could also look to make up lost ground in its weapons sales to the Gulf states if Trump lifts sanctions. Even during the war, the Arab Gulf talked to Russia about arms sales. Russian arms manufacturers displayed their goods alongside the US at the UAE’s arms expos in recent years.

US officials who spoke with MEE said they believe the US’s advantage over Russia in the oil-rich Gulf makes it a tough competition. Countries like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are deeply wired into US air defence systems, such as the Patriots and THAADS.

Meanwhile, the UAE is deepening its cooperation with the US in high-tech sectors like AI, where Russia struggles to compete.

Even as Trump riles Europe, he is courting the Gulf region. On Friday he announced that Saudi Arabia would be his first trip abroad as president after Riyadh agreed to invest $1 trillion in American companies over a four-year period. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there… probably over the next month and a half.”