Russia & The US’ Diplomatic Choreography At The UN Shows Their Commitment To A “New Détente”

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord…

The “New Détente”, which refers to the ongoing efforts between Russia and the US to enter into a rapprochement in the New Cold War similar in spirit to what they agreed to half a century ago during the Old Cold War, is no longer speculation after the US’ pivot towards Russia at the UN. The US joined Russia in vetoing a resolution from the General Assembly that condemned Russia for its special operation and then Russia sided with the US in supporting the latter’s more neutral one in the Security Council.

This diplomatic choreography was clearly coordinated between Putin and Trump to show the entire world that they’re committed to the “New Détente”. In parallel with what was unfolding on the world stage, each leader also spoke highly about the future of their economic ties, with Trump hyping everyone up to expect “major economic transactions” while Putin hinted at cooperation in the aluminum and rare earth industries. This followed their representatives discussing Arctic energy cooperation in Riyadh.

It was foreseen in early January that “Creative Energy Diplomacy Can Lay The Basis For A Grand Russian-American Deal”, which readers can learn more about from the preceding hyperlinked analysis. The two dozen compromises suggested near the end have already been agreed upon in part as proven by the US withholding Article 5 guarantees from NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine, ruling out its membership in NATO, discussing energy cooperation with Russia, and flirting with other forms of sanctions relief.

Unlike what some have claimed, Trump isn’t trying to pull a so-called “Reverse Nixon” by incentivizing Russia to turn against China like his predecessor half a century ago incentivized China to turn against the erstwhile USSR, which is unrealistic to expect in any case. Rather, as explained in the analysis about creative energy diplomacy, the purpose is to incentivize Russia into placing limits on its resource and eventually military cooperation with China in order to erode its strategic advantages vis-à-vis the US.

From Trump’s view, this will avert the scenario of Russia turbocharging China’s superpower rise and thus even the odds of reaching a grand deal with the People’s Republic that’ll be more in the US’ favor, while Putin sees this as managing the global balance of power. From his perspective, Russia is incentivizing the US into relieving pressure upon it and unofficial paying reparations for the proxy war via investments into its resource industry and economy as a whole, all while redirecting the US’ military focus elsewhere.

The Kissinger-inspired pragmatism behind this arrangement is predictably opposed by each country’s most zealous supporters, both at the civil society and state levels, but more on the US’ side than Russia’s. Furthermore, even though China officially supports the emerging Russian-US rapprochement, it’s likely still very suspicious of this process but is playing it cool for now in order to not attract negative attention. These trends must be managed by both parties in order for their envisaged “New Détente” to succeed.

Trump is ignoring his powerless opponents at the civil society level and European state one while purging his much more powerful opponents at the domestic (“deep”) state level through Musk’s DOGE, with the outcome of Trump’s efforts in turn shaping what Putin will ultimately do. Since nothing tangible has been achieved thus far, the Russian leader doesn’t seem to be doing anything other than sending positive signals, but that could change if Trump agrees to the compromises that Putin requires for cutting a deal.

In that scenario, Russian publicly funded media’s narratives towards the US and the New Cold War more broadly could drastically shift, which would be expected to also influence the information products of those Russian-friendly members of the Alt-Media Community who take their cues from the Kremlin. To be clear, these figures and outlets are free-thinkers, but they trust Putin and the media that’s under his authority for guidance to better understand the global systemic transition and specific processes therein.

Dissident elements might no longer be platformed by Russian publicly funded media nor invited to Russia for conferences since their views would no longer conform with the Kremlin’s so that could motivate them to rethink their opposition to the “New Détente” in furtherance of their career interests. No such potentially high-profile dissent is expected at the domestic (“deep”) state level though due to the differences between Russia and the US’ systems so such forces are expected to easily fall into line.

As regards China’s speculative suspicions of the Russian-US rapprochement, Trump, Putin, their top diplomats, and other representatives are expected to make a concerted effort to allay their counterparts’ fears about this process in order to avoid an overreaction that could worsen China’s ties with each. That said, China is known for reacting calmly even to events that it disapproves of so no significantly negative response is expected, though Chinese-friendly Alt-Media figures might be a totally different story.

It’s entirely possible that they’d either be tacitly encouraged to fearmonger about the “New Détente”, including by sensationally claiming that Russia “sold out” to the US, or might interpret everything on their own this way and sincerely believe that expressing these views somehow helps China. In any case, it can’t be ruled out that the Alt-Media Community might bifurcate into Russian-friendly and Chinese-friendly halves wherein the influential Iranian-led Resistance segment aligns with the latter out of spite.

That last prediction is predicated on how upset many of these figures are after “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis” as Israel systematically destroyed their regional network in West Asia over the course of the latest war. That outcome could be offset though if Iran later enters into its own “New Détente” with the US, after which it too could signal to its like-minded Alt-Media allies to shift their narratives like Russia might have earlier done by then.

All the insight shared thus far is conditional on the “New Détente” succeeding, the odds of which are increasing by the day as shown by the latest Russian-US developments and their respective leaders’ statements, hence the need to forecast the impact that this could have on the information sphere. The best-case scenario is that the pro-Chinese part of the Alt-Media Community doesn’t overreact on its own or is encouraged by China to respond that way so that the US can then more easily reach a deal with it.

Putin also endorsed Trump’s bold proposal for halving their defense budgets if everything works out between them, with the Russian leader even proposing that China do so too if it’s interested. He therefore clearly wants to promote or even help broker a Sino-US deal for resolving the root causes of their own security dilemma exactly as he and Trump are trying to do with theirs. Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are accordingly absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord.

If everything evolves along the trajectory that was outlined in this analysis, then the onus will be on China and to a lesser extent on Iran whether to get with the program by negotiating their own comprehensive deals with the US or to continue to defy it at the expense of jeopardizing world peace. Russia and the US’ diplomatic choreography at the UN, and Putin and Trump’s arguably coordinated economic-resource partnership statements, show that they trust each other and truly want peace.

China and Iran have repeatedly expressed that they trust Russia, both at the national and leadership levels, so it would be a moment of truth for them whether they’d then follow its lead by entering into their own talks with the US or go the opposite way in a sign that they never really trusted Russia. Whatever they do will in turn inform Russian policymakers, Putin chief among them, of their true intentions and could thus lead to pragmatic and peaceful recalibrations of Russia’s policy towards them.