Italy Hands Out 110% Free Home Renovations, Guess What Happened

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

A Modern Monetary Theory “Superbonus” trial is underway in Italy. The state pays 110 percent of home renovations…

In an effort to stimulate the economy during Covid, MMT proponent and then Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte came up with a not so brilliant idea that is now so popular no politician has been able to completely turn it off.

Contractors are going door-to-door offering to renovate homes for free.

The cost of scaffolding is up 400 percent, And the cost of the program, estimated at 35 billion Euros is now 220 billion euros and rising.

How to Torch 220 Billion Euros

Please consider How to Torch 220 Billion Euros

In the depths of the COVID pandemic, with the ECB committed to keeping sovereign spreads low and the EU fiscal rules suspended, Italy launched what would become one of the costliest fiscal experiments in history. Prime Minister Conte announced that the government would subsidize 110% of the cost of housing renovations. The “SuperBonus,” as the policy was called, would improve energy efficiency and stimulate an economy that had barely grown in over two decades. Consumers would face neither economic nor liquidity constraints:

Rather than direct cash grants, the government issued tax credits that could be transferred. A homeowner could claim these credits directly against their taxes, have contractors claim them against invoices, or sell them to banks. These credits became a kind of fiscal currency – a parallel financial instrument that functioned as off-the-books debt. The setup purposefully created the illusion of a free lunch: it hid the cost to the government, as for European accounting purposes the credits would show up only as lost tax revenue rather than new spending.

Contractors often inflated renovation costs; for instance, a €50,000 project might be reported as €100,000. The bank would purchase the €110,000 tax credit at near face value, enabling the contractor to pocket the difference, sometimes sharing it with the homeowner. At times, no work at all was carried out, in which case, invoices for non-existent work on fake buildings were a perfect tool for organized financial crime.

Builders were going around offering to pay people money to renovate their houses. A scheme initially budgeted at €35 billion will end up costing Italian taxpayers €220 billion — about 12% of GDP. Annual costs ballooned from 1% of GDP in 2021, to 3% in 2022, and 4% in 2023. Only 495,717 dwellings would end up being renovated – meaning the average cost of the program was around €320,000 per home.

Riccardo Fraccaro – a lawyer, Five Star Movement politician, Modern Monetary Theory adherent and architect of the SuperBonus – saw the program as a way to push a fiscal expansion while complying with EU rules. By designing the Superbonus as a system of transferable tax credits, Fraccaro and his advisors sought to create a parallel financial instrument that did not immediately register as public debt.

The [European] Commission approved the inclusion of the Superbonus in Italy’s NRRP after its design, with full knowledge of the fact this program included a 110% subsidy.

When Italy’s deficit shot up in 2023 due to the Superbonus, rising from a projected 5.5% to 8% of GDP, there was no market panic. Italian bond spreads remained contained, thanks to the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which reassured investors without the ECB even needing to intervene. By removing the constraint of market discipline, the ECB allowed the Superbonus to persist far longer than it otherwise would have.

The very mechanisms designed to protect the euro may now be undermining it. When the ECB steps in to prevent market pressure on sovereign bonds, it removes a crucial disciplining force on national fiscal policies, creating perverse incentives for politicians to expand spending without regard for long-term sustainability.

New Rules Scale Back Program

The above article, written February 14 2025, is amusing but dated. The program is still in place, but at a reduced rate.

In 2023, Italy Scaled Back the Program to 90 Percent Free rather than 110 percent free.

With state expenses rising, the new government has announced — through the “Decreto Aiuti Quater” (Amendment to the Subsidies Decree) and the Budget Law 2023 — that it’s immediately scaling back the subsidy to 90%, and then will be gradually reducing it over the next few years (to 70% in 2024 and 65% in 2025). In a nutshell, the main changes to the 2023 Superbonus are:

• The Superbonus deduction has been lowered from 110% to 90% as of January 1, 2023.
• Credit transfers no longer apply, except for work already in progress and with applications submitted by February 16, 2023.

Only 65 Percent Free

This year, renovations are only 65 percent free.

But making repairs free is easy enough via a scheme of fraudulent kickbacks stating with 35 percent fictional markups.

Italy’s Public Debt Tops 3 trillion Euros

Reuters reports Italy’s Public Debt Tops 3 trillion Euros, Highest on Record

Italy’s public debt rose further in November, exceeding 3 trillion euros ($3.1 trillion) and hitting a record high, the central bank of the euro zone’s third-largest economy said on Wednesday.

The sustainability of Rome’s huge public debt has long been seen as a crucial factor for the survival of the euro zone, and Italy has been the most sluggish economy in the bloc since the launch of the single currency around 25 years ago.

The country’s public debt – already the euro zone’s second-largest after Greece in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) – is forecast by the government to rise to around 138% of GDP in 2026, from 135% in 2023.

If economic growth in 2025 comes in significantly below the government’s 1.2% target, as most forecasters expect, the debt-to-GDP ratio is due to increase further.

Rome, which was put under the European Union’s excessive deficit procedure last year, hopes to bring its deficit below the EU’s 3% of GDP ceiling in 2026, from 3.8% targeted last year and 7.2% in 2023.

European Union’s Excessive Deficit Procedure

France and Italy are both under excessive deficit procedures.

France is ungovernable as a result. Germany is up next.

Not to worry, MMT assures us that government debt does not matter.

Related Posts

March 27, 2024: Expect a Financial Crisis in Europe With France at the Epicenter

The EU never enforced its Growth and Stability Pact or Maastricht Treaty rules. The crisis is coming to a head with France and Italy in the spotlight. The first casualty will be Green policy.

December 1, 2024: French Government May Collapse, France Bond Yields Higher than Greece

A fiscal and political crisis is brewing in France over mandated debt brakes. Marine le Pen threatens to collapse the government.

January 9, 2025: Trump Demands Defense Spending 5 Percent of Europe GDP, No Chance of That

Much of the EU is struggling to get defense spending up to 2 percent of GDP. 5 percent of GDP has zero chance. Let’s discuss the math.