US Cattle Herd Shrinks To 1951 Lows As Beef Crisis Deepens

Update: USDA figures are in: the nation’s cattle herd has plunged to a 74-year low, totaling 86.7 million head.

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Ahead of this afternoon’s 3 pm est. USDA release of official US cattle inventory data, estimates compiled by Bloomberg forecast the herd will be at its lowest level in more than seven decades. The ongoing cattle supply crunch continues to push supermarket ground beef prices to record highs.

Bloomberg cited estimates from four analysts that expect the US cattle herd as of Jan. 1 will decline by .7% from one year ago. This would mark the lowest level since 1951 and extend the decline for a sixth straight year.

We have thoroughly documented the cattle crisis resulting in higher ground beef prices at the supermarket:

• Cattle Futures Hit New Record High As Polar Blast Set To Hit Nation’s Beef Supply

• US Cattle Crisis Worsens As Nation’s Herd Size Continues Alarming Side Into Abyss

• Tyson Foods CEO Unsure When Nation’s Collapsing Beef Herd Will Reverse

The average retail price for ground beef at the supermarket, calculated by USDA, recently topped $5.61 per pound. Before Covid, that prices was around $3.81.

Live cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have surged to record highs. 

The latest CFTC data via Bloomberg shows money managers boosted bullish live cattle bets by 2,764 net-long positions to 161,970 last week, the most bullish in about five years – and nearing levels of the most bullish ever on record. 

On top of all this, the nation’s cattle crisis is set to worsen with new pressures: President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff war 2.0, which is expected to tighten domestic beef supplies. 

“All of the things he is talking about have potentially negative consequences more so than anything positive,” Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University, told Bloomberg in a previous report, adding, ”Our fate’s pretty well determined in the cattle industry in the US for the next two to four years – and it’s not looking good.”

About a year ago, the USDA projected that the cattle herd could begin rebuilding by 2025. However, that timeline has since shifted to 2027. The reason is primarily because of high interest rates and poor pasture conditions in the Midwest. 

“Even as the beef industry has experienced periods of growth over the past decades, the animal count has dropped almost 40% since a peak in 1975. During the current downcycle, which started in 2020, the herd has been shrinking at the fastest pace since the big farm crisis of the 1980s,” Bloomberg noted.

All things point to higher beef prices this year.