The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 7 2025

“Get To The Table” Trump Slams Massive Russian Drone-Missile Attack On Ukraine, Zelensky Seeks Truce

Russia Bombards Ukraine While Diplomats Timidly Ponder

‘ONLY I KNOW’: Trump says Russia has ‘no choice’ but to make Ukraine deal

Macron Slams Putin as ‘Imperialist’ After Russian Leader’s Napoleonic Jabs | Macron Vs Putin Clash

Ukrainian Kursk Incursion 10KM From Complete Encirclement | Noose Tightens On Chasiv Yar

RUAF Storm Malaya Loknya & Advance Further Within Sumy | AFU Regain Positions Near Pokrovsk

[ Ukraine SITREP ] KURSK FRONT IS IN DANGER!!! Robotyne is BACK in Zaporizhzhia report~!

ODESSA on FIRE: Russia Buried Thirty FRENCH Army Officers ALIVE under the Rubble of SANATORIUM

Massive missile and drone strike on energy and gas infrastructure in different regions of Ukraine — Galushchenko

 - The damage was confirmed by Energy Minister Galushchenko. He said that energy and gas infrastructure in different regions of Ukraine was under fire.

 - Ternopil reported gas outages due to a gas leak at a critical industrial facility.

 - Also arrivals via gas infrastructure in Poltava region.

 - And landing at an infrastructure facility in Kharkov (pictured with smoke).

 - Strategic bombers and ships carrying Kalibr missiles took part in the strike. In addition, the Shahed/Geran raid has been ongoing since the evening and is currently ongoing. The alarm is currently on in Kiev and western Ukraine.

Missile Attack Tonight:

4 out of 11 of the Tu-95s conducted launch maneuvers

Number of Kalibr carrying ships are out.

Number of Iskanders launched.

4 Kalibrs (2 groups) are approaching Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Gas facilities in Poltava was targeted

How the new missile strike on Ukraine is related to the US ban on intelligence transfer: Military Chronicle analysis

🔺 From the first hours of the U.S. ban on providing intelligence to Ukraine, it became obvious that this decision may not have immediate consequences, but it can cause an accumulative effect.

What happened?

The missile strike on the night of March 6-7 demonstrated that Ukrainian air defense capabilities without NATO intelligence coordination are much more modest than previously thought. Despite the active use of TRML-4D, AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel and other radars, including Soviet systems, the key role in the early warning system has always been played by data from allies. Previously, the AFU received information from Western intelligence agencies, including data from U.S. spy planes patrolling the Black Sea. On the night before the strike, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon and a Bombardier Challenger 650 Artemis were operating there, but the data from them does not appear to have been transmitted to the AFU Air Force Command (AFAC). As a result, Ukrainian SAM crews were unable to orient themselves, did not prepare in time or in full to repel the attack, and 90% of Russian missiles passed through the Ukrainian air defense with minimal opposition. There is a theory that Russia may have viewed this strike as a test to see if the US side continues to provide Ukraine with real-time intelligence.

Why it matters.

Ukraine’s air defense forces are the most dependent on timely intelligence. Without timely information on missile launches, the effectiveness of air defense is drastically reduced. In the next 1-2 weeks, the lack of intelligence information will begin to affect other battlefields, especially the correction of fire by HIMARS MLRS, artillery and attack drones, which the AFU used to attack energy facilities in Russia. Thus, if the ban on the transfer of intelligence remains in force, the effectiveness of the AFU in key areas of combat operations will begin to decline significantly. And it is far from certain that French intelligence, with a resource 20 times less, will be able to help here. 

Military Chronicle 

Why are the Russian Armed Forces destroying our gas infrastructure?

The answer is obvious. Make Kyiv more dependent on gas purchases from other countries, which will increase Ukraine’s expenses. This should lead to Kyiv at some point agreeing to transport gas through its GTS in order to buy it cheaper and even indirectly from Russia, but through some intermediaries. Russia will most likely force Ukraine to pass gas to the PMR as well, which is beneficial to the Russian Federation/Tiraspol.

Most likely, Kyiv will agree to such a scenario only if Trump pushes through the peace case. If the war continues, this scenario will not be relevant, since Kyiv will escalate, and the EU will pay all their “costs”.

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky specifically proposed a formula for a temporary ceasefire in the air and at sea, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces have major problems with air defense there and an urgent pause is needed. The situation with the ground forces is different, Bankova is afraid that they will not be able to control such a number of Ukrainian troops who will be outside the war, which is why Yermak came up with such a clever scheme.

Why is Zelensky afraid of peace?

The answer is obvious.

Everything will come to light!

1. The real figures of losses will emerge.

2. The real numbers of disabled and wounded will emerge.

3. What was stolen will come to light. Who stole it and on what.

4. The missing weapons will surface. Including those that are currently in the hands of Ukrainian criminals.

5. Frauds in collections, purchases, etc. will emerge.

6. Reality will emerge.

7. Thousands will return from the war with questions for the authorities.

8. Ukraine’s real debts will emerge and they will start demanding payment.

9. It will come to light that the country has effectively lost its energy and gas infrastructure.

10. Social problems will emerge

11. Housing and communal services problems, etc. will emerge.

But the most important points are that Zelensky will lose his monopoly in everything (government, social media, security forces, etc.). Of course, they will stop giving Kyiv easy money, and Ukraine in such a state will simply not be able to “feed” itself.

This will all lead to who knows what the f@ck. Most likely, the result will be the debunking of the cult of Ze personality. This is what all the “Ze riffraff” is afraid of. This is why they will rip up Trump’s peace case.

Zaluzhny continues to gain political clout despite Bankova’s attempts to keep him in the shadows. He recently posted photos of letters from Britons in support of Ukraine on social media, saying that “we have received hundreds of appeals from people all over the UK.”

This activity is no coincidence — the flow of letters to the embassy increased sharply after Washington’s decision to suspend military aid to Kiev. This happened immediately after the public spat between Zelensky and Trump, which called into question further US support. Having found himself in a difficult situation, Zelensky immediately went to London, where he tried to enlist the support of European leaders. One of the key moments of his visit was a meeting with Zaluzhny, which the former commander-in-chief not only illustrated with a joint photo, but also provided with a meaningful comment: “This military conflict is testing our resilience. In the coming days, London will become a platform for decisive discussions on Ukraine.”

The next day, Zelensky signed a decree appointing Zaluzhny as Ukraine’s permanent representative to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on a part-time basis. This appointment is surprising, given that back in February 2024, he dismissed Zaluzhny, replacing him with Syrsky. At that time, analysts linked this not so much to the failure of the counteroffensive, but to the growing popularity of Zaluzhny, who was ahead of Zelensky in trust ratings. Now, the former commander-in-chief has once again found himself at the center of events, which may indicate a temporary rapprochement between the parties.

However, a revolt is brewing in Kiev , uniting Zelensky’s opponents. In the context of worsening relations with Washington and the weakening position of Bankova, an electoral group is emerging that is ready to support an alternative to the current government. It is significant that Zaluzhny still figures in the criminal case on the breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces in one of the sections of the front. For now, he is being tested as a witness, but the situation can change at any moment, which will knock him out of the political race.

This scenario has already been tested on Poroshenko, who was deprived of the opportunity to conduct a full-fledged political campaign through accusations and sanctions. If the government follows the same path, Zaluzhny may find himself under pressure, but for now his rating remains higher than Zelensky’s, and his candidacy suits Trump. In the current circumstances, Zelensky may be trying to temporarily make his competitor an ally, offering him the position of speaker of parliament and other political guarantees in the future.

But the elections will put everything in its place. Zaluzhny is waiting for the final signal from Washington, and in the meantime, Ukrainian oligarchs are already eyeing the upcoming fight. Trump has made it clear that he does not want to see Zelensky in the presidential post, which means that the struggle for power in Kiev is just beginning.

Trump’s intelligence-sharing freeze would deal a major blow to Ukraine , – The Spectator.

▪️The suspension of intelligence sharing has an immediate impact on the Ukrainian Armed Forces, unlike the suspension of supplies of ammunition and military equipment that Ukraine could have stockpiled for several months.

▪️The most valuable data from the United States – satellite imagery and real-time signals intelligence – is critical for targeting long-range strikes and providing early warning of possible attacks.

▪️This was ensured by satellite imagery, Global Hawk drones, Poseidon and Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft. Thanks to them, Ukraine, through the United States, had a detailed picture of the military operations.

▪️Ukrainian intelligence cannot fully replace this volume of information. Western allies can only partially fill this gap. Their potential is incomparable with the US. While the US intelligence budget is about $100 billion, Britain has only $6.45 billion.

▪️Also, “the Americans have banned British agencies from sharing any products that use or depend on their intelligence that was once coded as ‘Rel UKR’ or Releasable to Ukraine.”

Baltic intelligence is trying to step up but his mum limits him to 2 hours of screen per day during the work week.

The US has banned Britain from sharing its intelligence with Ukraine and British Storm Shadow missiles have become “useless” – Daily Mail.

The impact is likely to have major ramifications as British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, a critical asset used inside Russia’s Kursk region by Ukraine, require US data to hit their targets. MailOnline has contacted the MoD for comment.

▪️It’s not just London that has received this ban, the newspaper adds.

▪️Since Trump’s inauguration, there has been no information about Storm Shadow missile strikes.

▪️The UK originally had about 900 missiles, and 600 have been sent to Ukraine.

Europeans are quickly learning their militaries are pretty useless without the US.

What’s the difference between US and French intelligence in Ukraine: a Military Chronicle breakdown

🔺 French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that the fifth republic could provide Ukraine with its intelligence capabilities after the US refused. However, it is necessary to understand how France’s intelligence capabilities differ from the US.

Technical intelligence capabilities

🇺🇸 The US utilized a global intelligence network including:

▪️ Remote Sensing (RS) and Electronic Reconnaissance (ER) satellites;

▪️ Aerial and unmanned reconnaissance platforms;

▪️ Electronic and cyber intelligence;

▪️ Agents’ sources.

The US also has access to data from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand).

The information was quickly processed and transmitted to the AFU in real time for targeting – e.g., for ATACMS and HIMARS strikes.

🇫🇷 France is far inferior to the US:

▪️ It has fewer satellites and weaker technical capabilities. According to some estimates, the French satellite constellation is about 20-25 times inferior to the US;

▪️ France does not have access to Five Eyes, but it does have coordination with NATO and the EU. However, the French are also prohibited from passing information collected by the US anywhere;

▪️ Because of these peculiarities, intelligence may arrive in Ukraine with delays and lower quality, reducing the effectiveness of targeting. And this is not to mention that the U.S. can prohibit the use of precision weapons of its own production for use on “foreign” intelligence.

Data transfer format

Before Trump came to power, the US transferred almost all operational intelligence to Ukraine.

▪️ On their basis, the AFU used precision weapons – for example, Storm Shadow strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol or shelling Crimea with ATACMS. 

▪️ The US also shared data with Kiev on Russian troop movements and sought leads on brigade commanders. 

What can France change?

▪️ It is not yet clear how much sensitive information the French will share with Kiev.

▪️ Most likely, they will focus their efforts on studying the big picture – the deployment of Russian forces and strategic risks in key areas. It is quite likely that for this purpose additional groups of French operatives may be deployed either at the front or in its immediate vicinity. 

However, it is already clear that a full-fledged target designation, comparable in quality and volume to the American one, will require enormous resources that France alone will not have. In order to at least try to work at the same level as the U.S., it will have to mobilize all the intelligence services of NATO countries and remove resources from other areas. But even this may not be enough, because sooner or later we will have to mobilize our own means of defeat. And this is already a qualitatively different level of presence. Both politically and factually. 

Military Chronicle

Whatever happens in Ukraine, we need to create an autonomous defense potential in Europe – Macron

▪️Trump, however, stated that he would like the opposite of what the French president is proposing on the issue of nuclear weapons, that is, denuclearization:

🇺🇸”It would be great if we didn’t have to talk about this,” the US President said.

Macron is a bankrupt politician who is serving out his presidential term, Macron has no support from the people of France or the parliament, but he is doing everything in his power to ensure that the war in Ukraine does not stop. He threatens Russia, he accuses Russia. But all from afar. There is a good quote by Johann Wolfgang von Goethe on this topic

“A coward sends threats only when he is sure of his safety.” I am sure that France will not actually enter the war. The parliament, which is opposed to Macron, will not give him permission to do this, the French will not support him. Things will not go beyond words” 

-Igor Meshkov, a member of the board of directors of the Uralvagonzavod concern.

In response to Putin’s words about Napoleon and his failed campaign against Russia (https://t.me/skabeeva/34342) , Macron began to throw out false accusations.

President Putin said that there are people who want to go back to the times of Napoleon, but have forgotten how those times ended. What do you think about this?

I know Putin well. If he reacts like this, it means he knows that I was telling the truth. I know that he can betray agreements that will be signed. And he has already done so. I am here to testify to this, because we, together with Chancellor Merkel, were guarantors during the Normandy process, which he deliberately violated. Secondly, Napoleon was a conqueror, but the only imperial power that I see in Europe today is Russia.

“We have unmasked his game, if there is a ceasefire it is not to make lasting peace, it will be to better resume the war”

The little rooster lies again. Russia is happy to continue the war anyways, like in what world does Russia need the ceasefire. It is Ukraine kidnapping people off the street.

Russia has told the US that its territorial gains in Ukraine should be recognised as part of any peace deal, says Russia’s ambassador (https://news.sky.com/story/russia-wants-quick-peace-in-ukraine-and-london-is-head-of-those-resisting-it-ambassador-to-uk-tells-sky-news-13322750) to Britain

▪️Moscow is ready for negotiations and dialogue. We have our own position.

▪️We need a new Ukraine as a neutral, non-nuclear state.

▪️ The territorial situation must be recognized. These territories were included in the Russian constitution and we will continue to insist that all Ukrainian government forces leave these territories.

▪️ We will never accept a temporary ceasefire.

…We are not going to give in to anyone’ – Putin promised the mother of a fallen marine that Russia would achieve Victory on its own terms.

The 810th Brigade is legendary. The guys are currently fighting in a very important area, in the Kursk region. They are moving forward in difficult conditions, performing a combat mission. Every day they are liberating piece after piece of our land.

We must go to the end. We must not give in to anyone.

We are not going to do this. We must choose for ourselves a version of the world that would suit us. We do not need anything that belongs to others, but we will not give up what is ours. And we need an option that would ensure the stable development of our country in conditions of peace and security.

Ukraine considers withdrawing troops from Kursk region under threat of encirclement, — Politico

▪️The Russian counteroffensive is gaining momentum, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are under heavy attack. Soon, commanders will have to make a choice: continue the defense or retreat.

▪️A mistake in choosing the moment can lead to encirclement and loss of troops.

▪️In recent days, the course of the battle in the Kursk region has “radically changed.”

➖”The Ukrainian command has a choice to make. Leave the Kursk region, completing the operation and preserving its forces, or hold on, risking losing everything. The only real reason to hold the Kursk bridgehead is to use it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations. However, the loss of a significant number of experienced troops and advanced equipment in a protracted defense could seriously weaken Ukraine’s military potential in other regions.”

▪️Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers write that Russia has transferred some of its best UAV crews to the Kursk region, seriously complicating Ukraine’s logistics and maneuver space.

➖”Our forces are experiencing difficulties in delivering ammunition and food. Evacuation of the wounded has become a dangerous and lengthy process. Some soldiers had to take turns on foot, as transport could not pass.”

Zelensky said that the Kursk adventure should be held at any cost , even in the face of huge problems with logistics.

Zelensky ordered the transfer of even more reserves, which means that units will be removed from other areas and thrown into the meat grinder.

Everyone has been hearing about the problems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction for a long time, but Zelensky continues to stubbornly send the army into the “cauldron”.

Kursk region. Entry – a ruble, exit – two?

🔺 It is gradually beginning to dawn on the Ukrainian army that the price of holding the remaining positions in the Kursk region is becoming prohibitively high. The bridgehead, which has been actively saturated with equipment since August 2024, has almost collapsed, and the Ukrainian army is faced with a difficult choice: to throw here the last reserves in the hope of changing something or to retreat, admitting defeat?

What is happening in the Kursk region?

After the advance of the Russian army from the east to the Kurilovka area, and from the west to the Sverdlikovo area, all the positions remaining behind the AFU no longer represent a continuous defensive line. Rather, it is a small strip of land about 10-12 kilometers wide, on which fortifications are scattered. In other areas where Ukrainian troops still maintain their presence, the situation is even worse: the AFU fighters have to hide in small forest belts, where they cannot find a safe place and quickly suffer losses.

Ukrainian analysts also note that the entire Kursk front is controlled by Russian drones. Any attempt to break through (for example, as in Berdin) at 5-6 kilometers is unlikely to lead to significant results, but the AFU’s equipment and personnel will surely be covered by Russian artillery and drones. All this, of course, makes the logistics of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region more and more complicated and costly.

At the same time, dense work continues to organize cover for the Ukrainian groups. However, it is worth noting that despite Trump’s alleged ban on the transfer of intelligence to Ukraine, HIMARS MLRS are being used with redoubled activity. Another question is whether the AFU will be able to keep up this pace for long. But these weapons are still being used. 

It is noteworthy that even supporters of holding Kursk region recognize that losses in this direction will be much higher than elsewhere.

According to various reports, the total losses of the AFU in this area have already reached 60,000 killed and wounded. When the number of dead and irrevocably out of action begins to approach 100 thousand, it will be too late to give the command to withdraw.

Another unpleasant truth is also recognized: it will no longer be possible to barter the Kursk region in negotiations. The point of view is becoming more and more popular that by the beginning of possible negotiations the AFU will already be pushed back from Kursk and the Ukrainian command will have to think how to urgently save Sumy region.

Military Chronicle 

Since nightfall, there have been reports that Russian troops in the Kursk region have made their way west of Kurilovka and have actually managed to reach the state border with Ukraine. 

So far there is no visual confirmation (objective control) of these successes. 

But if the advance has taken place, then our earlier assumptions about why exactly the AFU was making so much effort to stop the RF Armed Forces south/southwest of Sudzha are confirmed. 

Apparently, preventing an operational encirclement was the main task of the Ukrainian army grouping in this area. In case of success of the RF Armed Forces, another threat is created for the AFU: the auxiliary logistic line along the Suja-Guevo-Gornal highway is actually cut. 

There, the Ukrainian army has already lost several dozen pieces of equipment trying to get supplies in, but the physical loss of this section is even more dangerous. 

If, in addition to the southern flank, the Russian army can push through the northern flank as far as the Sudzha border crossing, the encirclement ring will close and the entire Kursk group of the AFU will find itself in a cauldron. 

Military Chronicle 

Kursk Region: Liberation of Old Sorochinya and Nikolaevka

ðŸ–In the morning, Russian troops advanced in the area of Malaya Loknya. Fighters of the 22nd regiment liberated Old Sorochinya and also Nikolaevka. Russian flags have been raised over both settlements. Battles for Viktorovka have begun.

🚩Ukrainian formations retreated to Malaya Loknya, where they are reportedly now replacing the relatively valuable units of the 95th Brigade with a mixed bag of various mobilized and Territorial Defense forces.

ðŸ³️ Further advance into Malaya Loknya from the liberated suburban villages of Old Sorochinya and Nikolaevka will be quite a challenging task, as the Malaya Loknya river, which separates these settlements, has turned into a marsh due to the thaw, which obviously affects the passability of the small spring river.

❗️So even taking into account the potential withdrawal of at least part of the enemy forces from Malaya Loknya, it is not the time to relax.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_7.html