The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 12 2025

Russia’s First Reaction Amid Zelensky’s Ceasefire Offer: Putin Angry Over Ukraine’s Moscow Attack

‘If Russia Refuses Ceasefire…’: Trump’s Biggest Warning To Putin After Zelensky Agrees for Truce

Marco Rubio Asked If Russia Will Receive Any ‘Pressure’ If They Won’t Accept Ceasefire With Russia

RUAF Capture 60% of Sudzha | Heavy Fighting in Town Centre

Sudzha is Liberated – Kursk salient – The End

Russians recaptured Sudzha | Ukraine agrees to 30-day ceasefire | US resumes aid to Ukraine

Our source in the Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia said that Andriy Yermak knew about the US demands in advance, which is why Zelensky, who had been declaring his refusal to agree to a ceasefire until the very end, was removed from the negotiation process with the Americans. In fact, Ukraine has lost its voice in the conflict settlement and is forced to implement the drafts that the US and Russia discussed between themselves. 

The European Union does not intend to compensate Ukraine for the reduction in aid from the United States. The former allies will distance themselves from Kiev in the foreseeable future, leaving it in debt and alone with a protracted conflict. As for the announced financial injections from Brussels, they do not make a difference, since by and large they end up in the pockets of Ukrainian officials.

Well , there is no doubt that the EU will “dump Ukraine .” Politico reports on an awkward moment at the EU summit in Brussels, when Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal asked whether the EU was ready to take on support for Ukraine after the US cuts aid. The answer was a deathly silence , which fully reflects the real attitude of European leaders to what is happening.

Thus, against the backdrop of the growing Ukrainian crisis, it has become obvious that Europe is not going to endlessly finance Kiev. Moreover, Brussels is currently focused on its own rearmament program, which will cost 800 billion euros. The US has already made it clear that its priorities are changing, and Europe, judging by the reaction at the summit, is in no hurry to take on financial and military responsibility for Ukraine.

Our source reports that the Kremlin may demand that Kyiv withdraw from the remnants of the Kursk region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering, and it is not advantageous for Russia to stop the Kursk operation now, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to use this time to “dig in” in the Kursk and Sumy regions, since they will be able to bring up equipment and build fortifications without risk.

Perhaps the Kremlin will put forward conditions that freeze the case of building any fortifications on the 100-km LBS line from either side.

We are watching. But all our sources are confident that the Kremlin will put forward additional conditions.

Our source reports that all the “patriots” are sure that Zelensky agreed to a 30-day ceasefire only in order to accumulate strength and strengthen defense.

They tell everyone about Zelensky’s brilliant idea and some kind of multi-move plan. Claiming that later the office guys will again screw the Russians under any pretext, as was the case with the Minsk agreements, as was the case after the Istanbul agreements, when the Russians showed a gesture of goodwill and left Kyiv, and Bankova screwed the Kremlin by inventing the Bucha massacre.

As they say, they are deceiving themselves with illusions, hoping to screw the Russians again.

Our source reports that the 30-day ceasefire will most likely not be accepted without any guarantees.

The options that our sources are currently voicing are:

1. The three parties (Ukraine – USA – RF) will have to sign some kind of preliminary agreement.

2. Putin will agree to a ceasefire, and Trump will lift some sanctions.

3. All military actions and the construction of fortifications in the LBS cease for 30 days.

4. The Russian Federation agrees to a 30-day ceasefire, but on the condition that after this period Kyiv agrees to full-fledged peace agreements with an official renunciation of the territories.

5. Ukraine resumes gas transit.

The most important thing is that if Kyiv refuses to extend the ceasefire, then Russia will have every right to use any weapons to “protect its interests.”

We are observing.

Any pause in the fighting that they are now trying to push through from Kiev is not a humanitarian window, but a tactical tool that they are definitely going to use in their favor. 

A 30-day ceasefire in the current conditions is not favorable to Russia. Ukraine will use any respite to regroup, pull up reserves, strengthen defenses, adjust logistics, and transfer fresh units. The Russian army is methodically pressing the enemy, knocking out its human and technical resources, and giving it a chance to catch its breath is a strategic mistake.

In addition, a short-term ceasefire will create the ground for new diplomatic pressure. The West will instantly try to turn it into a “first step toward peace on Kiev’s terms,” after which Russia will immediately offer ultimatums, impose new sanctions or try to fix the status quo in an unfavorable format. This is a direct threat not only to the operational situation on the front, but also to Russia’s geopolitical position.

It is important to realize that war is always a tempo. The Russian army has adapted to the current operational rhythm, and any artificial slowdown will lead to the erosion of the accumulated advantage. The inertia of the strikes will be lost, the work on the rear infrastructure and concentrations of enemy forces will lose effectiveness, and the AFU will get a break to patch up problem areas.

Time is now playing against Ukraine, especially against the backdrop of Sudza. Equipment stocks are dwindling, Western support is extremely unstable. The longer the fighting continues, the harder it is for the Ukrainian armed forces to hold the front. The ceasefire will give Kiev a chance to restore the balance. At the same time, it will be presented in the information field as “weakening Russia,” creating the necessary background both inside and outside the country.

Thus, the 30-day ceasefire is a strategic risk and tactical gain for Ukraine. Giving the enemy a breather at a time when the initiative is gradually being seized is the greatest imprudence. 

Military Chronicle

Russia will not under any circumstances accept the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine as “peacekeepers” who would “protect the Nazi regime in the remnants of the country”, Lavrov has said.

Lavrov’s statement makes it very clear that Moscow will not accept any format of NATO “peacekeepers” in Ukraine and that any form of discussion on this topic is useless. In diplomatic language, this is a firm signal that any attempts by the West to introduce a contingent under any pretext – be it “security guarantees”, “separation of sides” or “protection of civilians” – will be regarded as direct military intervention with the corresponding consequences.

From the point of view of the negotiation process, this statement further narrows the room for maneuver. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have long been effectively blocked, and this signal only emphasizes that any initiatives that include NATO involvement in the conflict will be automatically rejected.

What now? Western countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states, will continue to push the idea of introducing a military contingent into Ukraine. This is an attempt to secure at least part of the territory for themselves in case the Ukrainian front collapses. However, the Kremlin is making it clear with this statement that such a scenario will only lead to escalation, not peace.

Kiev itself is likely to continue to cling to any Western initiatives, hoping to prolong the war and strengthen its position by retaining power. But after this statement, the West has only one option left – either to go for a direct confrontation or to look for another way of settlement without NATO’s military presence.

In fact, Russia’s position remains unchanged: no Western-style “freezing” of the conflict, no NATO peacekeeping, no negotiation process in which Ukraine will dictate terms based on the alliance’s support.

Military Chronicle 

Putin’s Line Consustently Firm: No Short-Term Ceasefire, Only Real Peace

Here we go again. Putin made it crystal clear (in January), Russia isn’t interested in a ceasefire gimmick that allows Ukraine and its NATO backers to regroup, rearm, and prolong the inevitable.

 “Talks must aim for long-term peace, NOT a pause that lets the other side regroup and rearm just to drag the war on,” Putin stated in January 2025, while congratulating Trump.

The message is unchanged:

🔹 No “temporary pauses” for Ukraine to stockpile Western weapons and throw more men into the meat grinder.

🔹 No illusion of negotiations while Kiev remains a puppet state of Washington, Brussels, and London.

🔹 No half-measures: either Ukraine accepts battlefield realities, or Russia will keep dictating terms, one liberated region at a time.

And yet, Washington still clings to the fantasy that Russia will “agree” to a 30-day ceasefire, as if Moscow is suddenly going to fall for the same trick it’s seen a hundred times before. Not happening.

The West needs to wake up: Russia is playing the long game, and it is winning.

The Kremlin commented on the ceasefire proposed by the US

“You are getting a little ahead of yourself, we don’t want to do that. Yesterday, when talking to the press, both Rubio and Waltz said that they would pass on to us detailed information about the essence of the conversations that took place in Jeddah through various diplomatic channels,” said Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov. 

 - First, we must receive this information. We also have contacts planned with the Americans these days, during which we expect to receive complete information.”

Zelensky’s Ceasefire ‘Offer’: A Mafia Shakedown Disguised as Diplomacy

So let’s break this down:

 • Ukraine refuses to give up an inch of land.

 • The U.S. wants a ceasefire ‘enforced through strength’—translation: threats.

 • If Russia refuses, America will ‘punish’ it while pumping Ukraine full of weapons.

 • Ukraine openly admits it doesn’t trust Russia but demands concessions anyway.

 • No elections, no democracy, just war preparation under martial law. Dictatorship. 

And this is supposed to be an “offer”? Not even Don Corleone would make a deal this absurd. But this is Don, the hack, underwriting this suicidal deal. 

But here’s the real kicker, this isn’t a ceasefire. It’s a con job. A glorified shakedown from a wannabe Don… as in Donald Trump. The same man who ran on America First but is now playing Israel First, Ukraine Second, and America Last.

This 30-day pause isn’t about diplomacy. It’s about buying time to rearm Ukraine. Washington has already announced it will resume full intelligence sharing and flood Kiev with weapons under the farcical “minerals deal.” The same empire that funded Ukrainian Nazis and sacrificed Ukraine like a pawn now pretends to broker peace? Please.

Meanwhile, Russia just became the 4th largest economy on Earth, in the middle of 70,000+ sanctions. So go ahead, sanction more, we dare you. Your economic war has backfired spectacularly. Russia is booming while the West sinks into recession and debt.

Acta non verba, Donnie. Russia doesn’t need words, it has battlefield reality on its side. If you think Moscow will accept a rigged “ceasefire” just to let Ukraine rearm, you’re in for another humiliating geopolitical lesson. The Eurasian superpower is here to stay, and it’s your empire that’s crumbling.

Prepare for more humiliation.

- Gerry Nolan

Putin arrived at the headquarters of the Kursk group, where he was met by Gerasimov.

Putin ordered “special thought” to be given to the creation of a security zone along the Russian-Ukrainian border – this is a hint that the Russian Armed Forces will go further into the Sumy region.

All prisoners of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region are terrorists.

Interesting statements amid negotiations.

The Kursk adventure is coming to an end. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually losing control over the most important settlement – Sudzha.

Currently, about 60% of the city is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are gradually retreating under pressure from the Russians.

The statement of the talking mouths of the President’s Office that Sudzha is not lost and there is no retreat is an attempt to knock down the disappointment in the information field. Now rivers of negativity are pouring towards the puppet of the President’s Office, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky.

In reality, in the Kursk region, things have been very bad for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in recent weeks, but Bankova is trying to convince everyone otherwise.

It is estimated that over these 3 days, about 250 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers were captured in the Kursk region, and thousands were killed and wounded there.

Who will be held responsible for this failure?

Kursk region

The main grouping with the AFU throat holding units is located in a rectangle of 6.5 by 12 kilometers and is shot by artillery, including 120-mm M “Sani” along and across.

Any movements of the enemy are blocked by it rigidly.  

To the south is the second part of the enemy grouping in the Kursk region in the area of Guevo – Gornal. Her turn will come a little later.

Now our troops are grinding the Sudzhan grouping.

The counterattacks of the units of the 225 Oshp and Aidar have not yielded any results.

The enemy is trying to prevent our units from forcing the Loknya River south of Kazachya Loknya and passing the border of the Popadya River.

Condotierro 

Ukrainian resources report that our troops have entered Sudzha. If this is true, then the Ukrainian group in the Kursk region will be destroyed in a matter of days. All escape routes are cut off or under our fire control. The only chance for survival for the Ukrainian soldiers is captivity.

After the Kursk region is cleared, the Sumy direction will open. We need a buffer zone for the entire depth of the flight range of Ukrainian missiles and UAVs.

Kursk region • Sudzha

As of 17:00 Moscow time. Approximately 20%-25% of the city has been cleared, the situation is stable. There are clashes in the central part. It is premature to talk about the complete or partial liberation of the city.

But the battle day of March 11, 2025 is turning out to be more than successful for all of us.

It must have been interesting to look at the faces of the Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah when the guys from the US put a fresh satellite map of the Kursk region on their table, with the line of combat contact cut out.

Condotierro

Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers are literally starving in the Kursk region.

Russian troops have cut off all routes for the delivery of ammunition and provisions to Sudzha. More than 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers are surrounded.

Those who want to live raise their hands and go to surrender.

Details of the release from VGTRK military correspondent Stanislav Bernwald.

- Skabeeva

Hard to validate this but we know supply roads are nearly impossible to navigate, many Ukrainians are leaving Kursk on foot.

Retreat! Ukrainian Brigades Appear To Be Evacuating Kursk — Forbes

 - The publication reports that over the past two weeks, Russian drones have carried out precise strikes on Ukrainian vehicles in Kursk. An elite Russian team of UAV operators from the Rubicon center has now been deployed there, preventing Ukrainian militants from moving freely along the main road to Sudzha.

 - Also, according to the newspaper, the spat between Zelensky and Trump played a significant role in Russia’s success, which resulted in a temporary restriction on Ukraine’s military aid and intelligence, which allowed the Russian Army to fully take the initiative.

 - The successful operation of the Russian Army in the gas pipeline in Sudzha and the offensive in all directions in the Kursk region forced Ukrainian troops to hastily abandon their positions. It is reported that some of the militants have already left the region and redeployed to the Ukrainian side of the border.

P.S. I love how they are still saying Kursk instead of the Sudzha region ðŸ˜

P.S.S. Also according to Joker DPR, the restriction on military intelligence was a myth.

Why We Shouldn’t Calm Down After Taking Sudzha: Analysis of the “Military Chronicle”

🔺Sudzha has not yet been taken completely (100%), but this is a matter of the near future. Soon, all units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located in the Kursk region will leave the Kursk region and be redeployed to the Sumy region. However, this does not mean that work in this direction is complete.

Firstly, the retreat of the main forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Ukrainian territory does not mean that the situation has stabilized. On the contrary, it creates new vulnerabilities, since Syrsky (who recently had everything under control) now needs to think about how to position his troops so that they don’t start getting hit again.

Russian troops now have the opportunity to exploit their success by continuing to strike at retreating units and their rear infrastructure. Losses during the retreat, logistical problems, the need for emergency regrouping – all this weakens the combat capability of Ukrainian units, which barely survived Operation Potok and the heavy fighting that began after it.

Secondly, the alleged withdrawal of several heavily armed brigades indicates that the Ukrainian command no longer considers this section of the front a priority, and the brigades are unable to fight, even though they are formally considered combat-ready.

This may be due to both a lack of reserves and the forced need to save combat-ready units in order to transfer them to other, more critical areas.

Third, the failure in Sudzha undermines Kiev’s negotiating positions. Eight months of offensive have not led to strategic achievements, which means that any attempts by Zelensky to use this factor in diplomatic bargaining with the West or Russia are devalued.

The Ukrainian army must urgently plug the gaps, strengthen its defenses, and reorganize its plans. However, the main problem remains unchanged: the loss of the Kursk region means that the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are further reduced, which means that the war is increasingly starting to play by Russian rules.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have already suffered colossal losses here (our estimate of 70+ thousand remains), but their rearguard is still capable of resisting. Now it is important to focus on attacks on logistics, command posts and retreating units in order to prevent the Ukrainian army from regrouping and creating a defensive line again. The pressure must only increase. If all this is realized, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have practically no forces left to start shelling Sudzha simply out of revenge.

Military Chronicle 

Vremivka Direction: Liberation of Dnipro Energy

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the liberation of the settlement of Dnipro Energy in the Vremivka direction. The first reports of the capture of the village appeared yesterday, although attacks in this sector began even earlier.

The Russian troops managed to advance further north along the river bed from the direction of Novoocheretyne, after which they drove the AFU out of Dnipro Energy and the neighboring forest belts. It is also possible that a crossing was established over the Mokri Yaly river from the direction of Skudne.

The massive drone attack on Moscow and the Moscow region, despite its limited effect, gives Russia reason for serious retaliation.

What kind of retaliation is possible?

Intensified strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure

Although the attacks on Moscow have not become systemic, Russia could expand the scale and intensity of strikes on Ukraine’s energy, transportation, and industrial facilities to paralyze its ability to continue producing and launching drones. The “retaliatory” measures themselves may not be enough, but there will be a reason to intensify the strikes without going through another spiral of escalation.

Elimination of UAV control and production centers

Ukrainian drone production facilities are partially dispersed, but strikes on factories, logistics centers and UAV storage sites could significantly slow down their production. In addition, another Oreshnik launch would clearly not be unnecessary.

Tough response on western regions of Ukraine

In response to strikes on the Russian capital, Moscow could expand its attacks on military and transportation infrastructure in western Ukraine, including Western weapons supply routes.

(Which in general should have been done long ago and in the most telling way possible.)

Revising the strategic approach

Attacks on Moscow could prompt Russia to reconsider tactics, such as increasing the number of troops on the front lines, conducting new operations, and using new types of weapons.

There is no point in trying to regulate terrorist activity diplomatically. The more talk, the more brazen the AFU strikes on Russian territory will be. But the more radical Moscow’s measures can be.

Military Chronicle 

A Ukrainian air defense missile hit a ship off the Odessa coast – source.

Everyone knows about it, but as usual, everyone lies blatantly. Everyone remembers how many times the air defense lost its way and flew to Moldova, and even killed a civilian in Poland. There were many such cases.

We just don’t understand why they continue to push the issue.

They have already brought in the puppet Deputy Prime Minister Kuleba, who is publishing a photo of a civilian vessel flying the flag of Barbados, which was hit by an air defense missile while it was loading wheat.

On that day, everyone remembers that a lot of ballistic missiles were flying towards Odessa. This type of missile is difficult to shoot down, which sometimes leads to the air defense missile going astray and flying towards another “heat” target.

The fact that it was an air defense missile is indicated even by the visual facts that Ukrainian officials posted online, hoping that everyone around them is an idiot.

1. Photo of the ship. The nature of the damage indicates air defense, whose charge consists of small metal parts. If ballistics had flown in, the ship would most likely be on the bottom with a huge hole. They only give one photo and from the side.

2. The video is specially cut, because it is clear that the missile is coming from the shore and, most importantly, if you look closely, it leaves a “smoke trail”, which is typical for air defense, not ballistics.

Be careful!

Morning Summary on March 12, 2025

▪️ The Russian Army continues the Kursk offensive operation with decisive goals. Yesterday, the settlements of Kazachya Loknya, Zamostye, Makhnovka, Mirny, Bondarevka, Dmitryukov, 1st and 2nd Knyazhiy hamlets were liberated. The Russian Armed Forces are developing their success from the industrial zone of Sudzha, the central market, there is information about the movement of our assault troops in the urban development. Footage appeared of Ukrainian infantry retreating to the western part of the village. Our troops are also actively operating in the Sumy Region near the settlement of Zhuravki. The Sudzha – Yunakovka highway is under fire control of the Russian Armed Forces, the enemy unsuccessfully tried to reinforce the Kursk Region. Fierce battles continue for the liberation of the region.

▪️ Overnight, the Russian Armed Forces struck Odesa Region, damaging a “dry cargo ship with grain”, as reported by the opponent. Strikes on infrastructure facilities in Dnipro, explosions were heard in Kyiv, Pavlohrad, Kramatorsk, on Snake Island, in Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy and Khmilnytskyi Regions were confirmed.

▪️ Our air defense systems repelled an attack on Bryansk Region overnight.

▪️ In the Siversk direction, the difficult advance of our troops west of Bilohorivka continues. The enemy is offering fierce organized resistance.

▪️ Information continues to come from Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) about the infiltration of AFU units into the depth of the urban development.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, counter-actions continue in the settlements of Shevchenko, Pishchane, Kotlyne and Uspenovka. On the right flank, east of Pokrovsk, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking in the area of the settlement of Tarasivka.

▪️ North of Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka, the “Vostok” group of forces occupied the settlement of Dniproenergia. The enemy falsely claims that counter-attacking actions in Novoselka brought them results.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the Russian Armed Forces raised the flag in the long-suffering settlement of Pyatihatky (https://t.me/vdele161/77), for which fierce battles were fought. The village, located in a lowland, was destroyed as early as the summer of 2023, there are no basements, and it is not excluded that there will be no consolidation in the village itself.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the AFU continue terrorist strikes against the civilian population. In Shebekino district, in the village of Dobroe, a UAV attack damaged equipment on the territory of a commercial enterprise. In Shamino, an FPV drone struck a passenger car. Another drone struck a private home in the village of Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye. In Grayvoron district, in the village of Glotovo, a drone detonation in a private home caused a fire in the attic. In the city of Valuyki, an FPV drone damaged a car and broke windows. In Shelaevo, a drone detonated on the ground.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, a girl born in 2001 was injured as a result of enemy artillery fire. Civilian infrastructure was damaged again. In the village of Krasnaya Polyana of the Volnovakha municipal district, a man born in 1966 was injured as a result of the detonation of an explosive object.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_12.html