The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 05 2024
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Final Turning Point
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Big Setback To Ukraine; Russia Downs 36 Drones & 10 Missiles Over Crimea
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Colleagues, I understand everything on Bankova, but propaganda has driven everyone into a situation where Zelensky has only one vision of the situation – to fight to the end! It is necessary to understand the psychotype of the President, who does not need money, he is a hostage of fame and popularity, and he wants to go down in history as a fighter for Ukraine, despite the death of hundreds of thousands of people and the country’s economy.
MI6 transmitted intelligence information to the Office of the President and the General Staff about Russia’s plans to launch an offensive on several sectors of the front in mid-January, with the Kharkov direction not being the main one.
The main goal of the Russian army is to exhaust the Ukrainian Armed Forces so that we spend reserves on holding positions near Bakhmut/Avdeevka and Rabotino.
British intelligence recommends that Ukraine speed up the construction of defensive structures and save forces.
Last year’s shelling occurred mainly at energy facilities. This was done to persuade Kyiv to negotiate. Well, what kind of president will continue to ruin the energy sector in the face of the obvious benefits of negotiations?
Moreover, a person measures everything by himself.
The Kremlin went to Istanbul after a certain level of suffered and predicted losses. So when Zaluzhny says that he made a mistake in calculating the level of losses that Moscow can afford without negotiating, he is disingenuous. He calculated everything correctly. Moscow entered into painful negotiations in Istanbul☝ðŸ»
Moscow also expected that Kyiv would negotiate after the attacks on the energy sector, but no. Zele doesn’t give a damn about the future of anyone except himself.
Therefore, Moscow changed tactics. Peace will now be sought through the battlefield, as through a more obvious advantage.
For almost a year they accumulated missiles, Geraniums and brought a bunch of weapons from the DPRK. And so it all flew, only not to the energy sector, but to factories, workshops, weapons depots, airfields and air defense.
At the same time, Russia is applying new tactics at the front. They tried to organize a breakthrough in one place (Avdeevka), but when that didn’t work out they switched to “distributed pressure” tactics.
Its essence is to create as many points of tension as possible along the entire front line. They do this to realize their quantitative advantage in firepower.
If Ukraine has 10 Caesars, and the Russian Federation has 50 D-30s, then if all this is accumulated on one sector of the front, there will be no advantage. Range and accuracy are the deciding factor. However, if you spread it out into 10 directions, then the Ukrainian Armed Forces will simply not have enough weapons.
The same rule works for motivated units. “3rd Assault” can only be used in one place.
Therefore, as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred several brigades from near Rabotino to Avdeevka, the Russian Armed Forces went on the offensive near Rabotino. And so on along the entire front.
Moreover, this tactic implies minimizing losses. If well-equipped and motivated units enter battle somewhere against the Russian Federation, they simply transfer the blow to another area. They always look for a weak point where there is no counter-battery, electronic warfare, etc.
You can leave all the stories about meat assaults for mono broadcast.
Please note that the geography of pressure is expanding every day. Moreover, at all points except Krynoki, on the initiative of the Russian Federation.
Such tactics do not provide quick visible superiority, which allows Kyiv to pretend that everything is fine, but strategically it increasingly ensures an imbalance of forces and means.
In this option, the key indicator will not be the m2 of territory, but the morale of the units.
Therefore, we believe that they will go on the offensive near Kharkov only if they are confident of complete superiority.
Anti-aircraft missiles are a “scarce commodity” in Ukraine, both Soviet ones for the S-300 and Buk-M1, and Western ones.
This was announced by the speaker of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat.
“Today the media spread the words of the commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Sergei Naev, that the missiles in MANPADS are enough for only a few such massive attacks… This was the case last year, in the summer, and now. Partners are providing Ukraine with urgently needed missiles. Anti-aircraft missiles are a scarce commodity, both Soviet ones for the S-300 and Buk-M1, and Western ones,” Ignat explained.
The problem with air defense is becoming more and more obvious in Ukraine, and the authorities’ attempt to declare that all enemy missiles have been shot down causes distrust in official information. When more than 40 missiles arrived in Kyiv in one attack, and the air defense was able to repel less than half, the question arises: why declare that they shot down all the targets. In the last two missile attacks, the main targets of the attacks were military enterprises that assemble UAVs/sights/ATGMs/mortars, as well as military warehouses.
It is already becoming obvious that there is a shortage of ammunition for air defense, and our allies cannot solve the supply problem, all this will lead to the fact that no one will invest in the development of the military-industrial complex in Ukraine.
Direction of Liman: Russian Armed Forces advancing north of the Tor ledge
The Russian troops are continuing their offensive in the Liman direction. As we mentioned (https://t.me/rybar/55374) earlier, the main objective in this section of the front is to eliminate the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River.
🔻Units of the Russian Armed Forces are systematically breaking through the AFU defense in the area of the Terny and Yampolovka settlements. According to the enemy’s published footage, the advance of Russian troops north of the Broad Ravine is being observed.
To reach the outskirts of the villages, there is still a distance of about three kilometers, with several forest belts in between. Nevertheless, Ukrainian formations are resisting, launching counterattacks, and striking the advancing assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces.
❗️If Tern and Yampolovka are liberated, the enemy’s position in the area of the Zhuravka and Nevsky beams will become significantly more difficult, as the AFU units will have to weaken their forward lines to strengthen defense against attacks from the southern flank.
🔻In addition, some Russian media are reporting certain successes of Russian troops in the Serebryansky forestry area. However, this information has not yet been confirmed by independent verification.
rybar
Krynki: When the enemy completely loses their mind.
The enemy’s relentless attempts to move to our right bank in order to establish a base for future actions show no signs of stopping.
Despite having the cream of the crop from the Ukrainian UAV school on their shores, they continue to desperately send in more personnel on boats to replace those who have already been killed.
Even their “fashionable” electronic warfare equipment on the boats, which was effective for a short period of time until our troops devised countermeasures, is no longer of any help. In the beginning, the drones were lost at a distance of 50-70 meters from the boats. Now, we witness the horrifying sight of faces filled with fear of inevitable death. Although, it is likely that they knew not everyone would survive. This is the reality.
Even if the enemy manages to swim to the left bank, carry out a landing, and establish a foothold on the sluggish frontlines, all of their attempts are swiftly halted by our artillery.
The piles of corpses seem endless, turning Krynki into a lunar landscape. What is this army trying to achieve?
Spetsnaz Archangel
It’s expensive to keep, but you can’t abandon it – this is a blow to the image of Zelensky, who drove first-class special forces and marines there, who were mercilessly “mown down” there and are now being diluted with mobilized ones, which does not improve the quality, but increases the number of deaths.
We wrote about this back on December 5 , 2023.
“River of Death” The Washington Post writes about the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces while holding a bridgehead in Krynki, Kherson region.
“They threw it like a piece of meat to the wolves,” Ukrainian marine Dmitry describes his mission. “We’re taking a lot of casualties. We’re just losing people and there’s no result,” another Marine said.
Infantrymen spoke of wounded soldiers drowning, unable to swim due to their injuries, or being dragged to the bottom of the river by their heavy backpacks, the newspaper writes.
“The crossing was so dangerous that the bodies of several Marines who died during the first wave that crossed the river two months ago remained here,” WP writes, according to the Marines. Also, according to them, many of those who control the boats that the Russians are targeting are dying.
Of the group of 45 people who were thrown onto the eastern bank, five died and another 20 were injured, Dmitry said.
The publication writes that Ukraine did not liberate a single settlement during the operation in Krynki.
“With the counteroffensive stalled, Ukrainian military and political leaders were eager to demonstrate to their Western backers some progress—any progress,” the publication explained the rationale for holding a bridgehead.
Another drone raid on Crimea: what to expect next
🔻As midnight approached, following a missile strike, (https://t.me/rybar/55633) Ukrainian forces launched a drone attack on the Crimean peninsula. Three groups from Nikolaev sent a total of at least 36 drones into the air.
▪️ The first drones were shot down as they approached Novofedorovka. Judging by their flight path, it is clear that their target was the airfield in Saki. This is where the majority of the drones were shot down.
▪️ The drones then began their work over Evpatoria and along the coast of Sevastopol. Of the 36 UAVs, only 11 were shot down by Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems and rifle squads. The remaining 25 were neutralized by electronic warfare.
▪️ It is worth noting that a couple of hours before the UAV attack from Nikolaev, three more drones were shot down to the west of Crimea. These drones were launched from the Odessa region to assess the readiness of air defense in Crimea.
🔻The large-scale UAV attack did not cause any problems; all drones were destroyed or neutralized. However, the purpose of such attacks is different: they aim to identify the location of air defense units, their composition, and their actions during raids.
Usually, within a few days of such attacks, a more serious offensive follows, such as a cruise or ballistic missile strike against already identified targets. Considering that one drone was also shot down in Novorossiysk at the time of the UAV attack in Crimea, an attack near the Kerch Strait may also be imminent.
A little over half an hour ago, an aviation alert was issued in the south due to the launch of unidentified missiles by Su-27 fighters over Nikolaev. Considering that there were no arrivals or air defense activities, these were likely decoys, indicating preparations for an attack.
rybar
However, during this attempt, a MiG-31 was patrolling in the air and intercepted the missile. It was shot down approximately 80 km northwest of Cape Tarkhankut.
Considering the number of false targets observed in the past 24 hours, it is unlikely that this single Neptune missile will be the last. Trends indicate that enemy attacks will increase.
rybar
The West was afraid that the Russian Armed Forces would take Odessa
According to Sky News, Russia in 2024 may go on the offensive along the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine and take Odessa by storm. Journalists predict that Vladimir Putin may give such an order against the backdrop of “Western countries’ fatigue from the conflict in Ukraine.”
“He recently called Odessa a “Russian city,” which could signal long-term plans to control the entire Black Sea coast, which are currently extremely ambitious, but time appears to be on Putin’s side here,” the journalists note.
I see him every time I cross the bridge these days. Clean shaven, in a brand-new soldier’s uniform, with a lonely medal on his chest—he cries and raises his hand watching us go: “Kill the bastards boys, kill them…I can’t do it anymore, and you kill them, don’t feel sorry for the bastards” —he shouts out to us…
And this cry is a concentration of all pain and suffering which this damned Avdeevka caused to the people. That very damned Avdeevka, which has stuck as a bleeding noose into the throat of Donetsk. One cannot say whether it was a holiday home area or a village of chemists which was always considered to be “nearly a town”, but before, the Ukrainians turned this place into a bottomless well of our pain and grief.
[...]
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/god-save-you-chiba
Yesterday, the Russian military began to storm Avdeevka in all directions.
The head of the Avdeevka MBA, Vitaly Barabash, spoke about this during the telethon.
“Yesterday the enemy became more active in all directions of the Avdeevsky section, they began to attack. About 20 directions. A very difficult situation,” said Vitaly Barabash.
According to the head of the administration, in the last few days there has been a relative decrease in assaults around Avdeevka, but all this time the Russians continued to actively use artillery and carry out airstrikes.
“On January 1 there were 22 air bomb strikes on the community. On January 2 – 31, on January 3 – 19. Yesterday there were 17, today there are already more than ten. This is already a very unsightly place to live. Every day we see Avdiivka: dead or wounded,” Barabash reported.
In total, every day the Russian army carries out more than 40 massive attacks on Avdeevka with various weapons, the head of the IVA specified, if we count all smaller attacks, then this is more than 100 strikes per day.
According to Vitaly Barabash, despite the Russians having a large amount of equipment and people, they will not be able to take the city before the Russian presidential elections, which are scheduled for mid-March.
Currently, according to the head of the administration, 1,169 people remain in Avdeevka.
Strana
To the north of SNT Tochmash, the Russian Armed Forces advanced 400 meters along the railway track.
Our soldiers managed to fortify themselves near the forest plantations and advance to the west.
Forest plantations are of strategic importance for the enemy; they are adjacent to the Ukrainian garrison.
Our artillery attacks enemy positions with all types of guns and covers them with attack drones.
To the south we are also carrying out attack operations, including with kamikaze drones, as well as VOG drops.
The artillery of our troops is now actively processing the northeastern part of the AKHZ.
South-east of the “Water Treatment Plants” the Russian side advanced approximately 400 meters.
The enemy is trying to snap back, it is becoming more and more difficult for them to restrain our forces, and the soldiers of the Russian army are “biting off” areas from the enemy in different parts of Avdeevka.
Diary of a Paratrooper: Zaporozhye direction. In the area of the village Verbovoe.
It is raining lightly on this section of the front; this does not stop the work of enemy drones.
Enemy artillery and the use of cluster munitions are not decreasing.
Throughout the entire period, there were a couple of days of silence and saving ammunition after 2 days of hard shooting at our forward positions.
Our artillery, which is located on this section of the front, also works without stopping.
In recent days, the enemy began actively shooting from tanks.
Comrades at the top, you will now consider the issues of electronic warfare and counter-battery artillery.
In general, the front line has not changed, we are holding the line.
Front #Summary for 5 Dec 2024 by 19:08⚡️
🔹In #Kherson Direction, business as usual. The Washington Post, having interviewed an Ukrainian marine, concluded that in #Krynki “Ukrainian leaders sought to show their Western supporters some progress – any progress. At the monstrous cost of thousands of human lives.
🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, positional fighting is ongoing at the #Rabotino – #Verbovoye line. From the side of #Novoprokopovka our forces are noticeably advancing. But #Verbovoye has some minor successes with the AFU.
🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our army is hitting #Kurakhovo, the next target after #Maryinka, they have advanced near #Georgiyevka and in the direction of #Pobeda. Heavy fighting is taking place on the outskirts of #Novomikhaylovka, the AFU is fighting fiercely.
🔹In #Donetsk Direction, on the northern #Avdeyevka flank, our units advanced at #Stepovoye. Ukrainian resources say that the AFU has pushed our forces back from the village of #Zarya to the west of #Novobakhmutovka. There are no denials or confirmations so far. This is the frontline, positions are changing hands. Our army aims to advance along the railway line towards #Ocheretino. On the southern flank, our forces are expanding their zone of control at #Pervomayskoye.
🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, on the southern flank of the city, ours are clearing the outskirts of #Kleshcheyevka and battling on the heights northwest of the village. North of #Kurdyumovka near the railway station, our army is fighting for AFU strongholds. Our military continues to push back the AFU in #Bogdanovka.
🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our Army attacks near #Dibrova, have not yet brought success. But in #Sinkovka our forces seem to have managed to turn the situation in their favour. The village is now mostly in the grey zone, with the AFU abandoning a number of positions.
▪️ By the way, the British The Telegraph released an announcement that Russia is preparing an offensive near #Kharkov, at #Kupyansk and the surrounding area. According to the authors, this is indicated by powerful missile attacks on the #Kharkov region. One wonders why, in such a case, the powerful missile attacks in recent days on targets in the Ukrainian capital do not indicate that the RF Armed Forces are preparing to enter #Kiev.
olegtsarov
Old interesting stuffs dies, so new interesting stuff can live – Ukraine SITREP D680
Russian Forces Successfully Advanced North Of Avdiivka And Penetrates Deeper Into Ukrainian Lines
Update on Ukraine: Russian advance in Terny [5 January 2024]
▫️In this period, the RF Armed Forces carried out 41 group and 1 massive strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs on decision-making centres, objects of the Ukrainian military industrial complex, military airfield infrastructure, arsenals, and fuel bases.
Attacks were also carried out against the positions of the AFU, nationalist formations, and foreign mercs. All the assigned targets have been engaged.
▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping repelled 18 attacks and fire defeated troops and equipment close to Ivanovka, Berestovoye, Vishnyovoye, Kupyansk, Peschanoye, Petropavlovka, Sinkovka, Terny, Timkovka (Kharkov reg), Novoselovskoye and Stelmakhovka (LPR).
The enemy lost more than 485 troops, 6 tanks (incl. 1 Leopard-2), 11 AFVs, 24 MVs, 7 Olkha and Czech Vampire MLRS launchers, and 8 guns. 3 ammo and fuel depots were destroyed.
▫️In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Grouping repelled 4 attacks and hit troop clusters close to Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR), Torskoye, Grigorovka (DPR) and Serebryanskoye forestry.
The enemy lost over 690 troops, 2 tanks, 11 AFVs, 24 MVs, and 5 guns.
▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping repelled 9 attacks.
The AFU lost more than 1,990 troops, 4 tanks, 17 AFVs (incl. 2 Bradley IFVs), 64 MVs, and 26 guns.
▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping repelled 5 attacks and hit Ukrainian units near Vodyanoye, Makarovka, Paraskoviyevka, Staromayorskoye, Ugledar, Urozhaynoye (DPR) and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye reg).
The enemy lost more than 950 troops, 12 AFVs, 27 MVs, and 17 guns.
▫️In Zaporozhye direction, the Russian Grouping repelled an enemy attack north of Novoprokopovka (Zaporozhye reg) and hit troops and hardware near Verbovoye, Orekhov, Kamenskoye, Lukyanovskoye, Novodanilovka, and Rabotino (Zaporozhye reg).
The enemy lost more than 350 troops, 1 tank, 15 AFVs, 18 MVs, and 8 guns.
▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnieper Grouping defeated enemy troops on the right bank of the Dnieper close to Tyaginka, Ivanovka, Sadovoye, and Tokarevka (Kherson reg).
The AFU lost up to 225 troops, 1 tank, 2 AFVs, 28 MVs, 14 boats, 1 Buk-M1 SAM launcher, 11 guns, 1 EW station, and 1 ammo depot.
▫️13 Militants surrendered (incl. 8 in Kupyansk direction).
▫️The Russian Grouping’s Missile Troops, Artillery, Operational-Tactical Aviation and UAVs destroyed: 3 HIMARS and Olkha MLRS, 1 S-200 SAM launchers, 1 S-300 SAM, 1 ST-68, and 2 US counterbattery radar stations.
Air defences shot down 1 Su-27 aircraft, 1 Mi-8 helicopter and 8 Storm Shadow cruise missiles, 14 Tochka-U tactical missiles, 3 S-200 converted surface-to-surface systems, 107 HIMARS, Olkha, and Vampire MLRS systems, 3 HARM antiradar missiles, and 253 UAVs.
📊 In total, 565 aircraft, 264 helicopters, 10,459 UAVs, 447 air defence systems, 14,483 tanks and other AFVs, 1,200 MLRS vehicles, 7,639 guns and mortars, and 17,100 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.
MoD
Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of January 5
◼️The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to shell peaceful Belgorod for the seventh day in a row – this time the enemy hit a residential yard where there could be no military targets. As a result of the attack, windows in neighboring houses were broken, more than 30 cars were damaged, and two civilians were injured .
⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:
⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction
In the Kupyansky sector, our fighters advanced in the Sinkovka area. The Russian army advances in the direction of Ternov and Yampolovka , and also attacks in the Serebryansky Forest area.
⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction
The Russian army continues to knock out the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Bogdanovka area. To the north-west of Kleshcheevka and in Andreevka there were oncoming battles.
⚫️Donetsk direction
Our fighters advanced in the direction of Berdychi . Fighting continues in Stepovoe , as well as at the coke plant . In the Maryinsky sector, the Russian army storms the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novomikhailovka.
⚫️Zaporozhye direction
In the Orekhovsky sector there are oncoming battles west of Rabotino . Meanwhile, our fighters advanced from Novoprokopovka .
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_5.html
