Concerning Mutual Assured Destruction

Aesop wrote a piece concerning nuclear missiles last week. His premise is based on the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) policy which means nobody wins in a nuclear war. Is the premise behind MAD sound enough to prevent a nuclear holocaust which would wipe out all sides? Rather than explore whether sound minds would prevent a nuclear war, let’s explore a different analysis using Oreshnik missiles which have no nuclear fallout, pinpoint accuracy and multiple warheads.

From a question to Grok:

Comparing the energy released by the Oreshnik missile attack to that of a nuclear missile involves understanding the scale of nuclear weapons, which can vary significantly in yield:

• Oreshnik Missile (Conventional Use): The Oreshnik, when used with conventional warheads, has an estimated kinetic impact of approximately 2.5 kilotons of TNT.
• Nuclear Missiles:
  • Tactical Nuclear Missiles: These have a wide range of yields but can start from around 1 kiloton up to several kilotons or even more. However, even at the lower end, the energy release is often in the same ballpark or can exceed the kinetic impact of the Oreshnik when used conventionally.
  • Strategic Nuclear Missiles: These are designed for much larger yields:
    • Little Boy (Hiroshima): Had an explosive yield of about 15 kilotons.
    • Modern ICBMs: Can range from several hundred kilotons to several megatons. For instance:
      • The W88 warhead used on the Trident II missile has a yield of 475 kilotons.
      • The Russian SS-18 Satan ICBM can carry warheads with yields up to 20 megatons, though most modern deployments involve multiple smaller warheads.

In summary:

• Oreshnik’s Kinetic Impact: Approximately 2.5 kilotons.
• Nuclear Missiles:
  • Tactical: From 1 kiloton upwards.
  • Strategic: From several hundred kilotons to multiple megatons.

Thus, even a small tactical nuclear weapon would release energy comparable to or greater than the kinetic impact of the Oreshnik missile when used conventionally. However, if the Oreshnik were to carry a nuclear payload, its destructive capability could be significantly higher, potentially reaching or exceeding the yields of many tactical nuclear weapons.

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There is a large difference between a nuclear warhead or warheads vs. an Oreshnik missile strike. If the enemy has a weapons’s system that is capable of inflicting damage on the scale of a nuclear warhead with no radiation released, the nuclear deterrent of a counterstrike escalating into a world war is reduced. The implied threat that future launches may be nuclear also is a new twist in the world’s war picture.

Do not become complacent that Russia or the West will not launch nuclear missiles even if that is the only option available to win a war. Russia’s ability to launch conventional warheads at a high rate of speed with the same results as a nuclear attack (minus the radiation) has changed the logic on the battlefield.

David DeGerolamo